Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Gearing up

(Edited a bit later with some spoilers and more info)

One more week to go until the next season of The Biggest Loser, and I'm pretty excited. Ubergeek that I am, I've been trawling the Internet trying to find out as much as I can about the season in advance. Here's what I know.

The contestants

Black team: father/daughter
  • Andrea Hough (daughter), 24, 5'7", 298lbs, BMI 46.7 (morbidly obese), executive assistant from Ann Arbor, MI, single, MySpace page
  • Darrell Hough (father), 46, 5'10", 413lbs, BMI 59.3 (morbidly obese), press operator/mechanic from Ann Arbor, MI, married with 2 adult children
  • Clips I've found hint that Darrell has "never run before", but obviously is made to do so on the show. I haven't seen much of them, but from what I have seen, Andrea seems tough. Looking forward to seeing what she can do. Black team video profile

    Pink team: mother/daughter
  • Ashley Johnston (daughter), 27, 5'5", 374lbs, BMI 62.2 (morbidly obese), spa manager from Knoxville, TN, single
  • Sherry Johnston (mother), 51, 5'1", 218lbs, BMI 41.2 (morbidly obese), non-profit admin from Knoxville, TN, married with 2 adult children and 1 stepson
  • You will be hard-pressed to tell them apart from Season 7 Pink Team Helen and Shanon! Seriously, they look a LOT the same. Ashley is the most overweight woman on the show this season. Clips show Jillian threatening a whimpering Ashley with dire consequences if she steps off the treadmill "one more time" before she wipes out. Pink team video profile (in which we learn that they turned to food after their husband/father died)

    Blue team: mother/daughter
  • Cherita Andrews (mother), 50, 5'8", 277lbs, BMI 42.1 (morbidly obese), homemaker from Houston, TX, married with 2 adult children, possible Facebook page
  • Victoria (Vicky) Andrews (daughter), 22, 5'9", 358lbs, BMI 52.9 (morbidly obese), student from Houston, TX, single
  • One of NBC's preview clips shows Cherita interviewing that "I want to be able to live, and not die." Another clip shows Cherita (I think it's Cherita) getting really hurt on the treadmill and screaming in pain while Dr. H. helps her out. Blue team video profile (in which we learn that Cherita is a breast cancer survivor)

    Orange team: mother/son
  • Cheryl George (mother), 50, 5'4", 227lbs, BMI 39.0 (clinically obese), owner of Sears Hometown store from Ardmore, OK, married with 3 adult children
  • Daris George (son), 25, 5'10", 346lbs, BMI 49.6 (morbidly obese), deliveryman/salesman from Ardmore, OK, single, Facebook page, MySpace page
  • Daris is the dude with the ridiculously ringleted hair in the preview clips telling his fellow contestants that he's never had a girlfriend ever. (I am convinced this is due to his hair, not his weight. In all seriousness.) Cheryl is the woman we saw screaming her head off at Jillian in the preview clip. I like her already. Orange team video profile

    Brown team: twin brothers
  • James Crutchfield, 30, 6'5", 485lbs, BMI 57.5 (morbidly obese), human resources director from Orlando, FL, married
  • John Crutchfield, 30, 6'5", 484lbs, BMI 57.4 (morbidly obese), senior reporting manager from Orlando, FL, married with 1 child
  • They appear to be identical twins. One of NBC's preview clips shows one of them saying, "To imagine going through life without your twin is something unimaginable." Another clip reveals that they've been struggling with their weight since they were ten years old; they now refer to themselves as "the half-ton twins". They've each broken feet just from the pressure of their weight while walking. Brown team video profile

    Grey team: cousins
  • Koliniasi (Koli) Palu, 29, 6'1", 403lbs, BMI 53.2 (morbidly obese), football coach/head of security from Rohnert Park, CA, single, possible Facebook page, MySpace page
  • Sam Poueu, 24, 6'4", 372llbs, BMI 45.3 (morbidly obese), youth football coach/security guard from Rohnert Park, CA, single, Twitter account
  • Koli and Sam's backgrounds are Tongan/Samoan, so maybe we're in for some more haka dances this season! Koli's the one we've seen in a preview clip talking about how he doesn't believe anyone could seriously fall in love with a 400lb man. Grey team video profile (in which Koli vows to do better than Sione and Filipe)

    Red team: husband/wife
  • Lance Morgan (husband), 38, 6'3", 365lbs, BMI 45.6 (morbidly obese), rancher from Aspermont, TX, married with 2 children
  • Melissa Morgan (wife), 39, 5'6", 233lbs, BMI 37.6 (clinically obese), attorney from Aspermont, TX, married with 2 children
  • Lance and Melissa have been shown in preview clips interviewing that their marriage is in trouble; they're not even friends anymore; although another clip shows them embracing with a genuine feeling of connection. They're also aware that their eating habits are having a negative effect on their children. Jillian has also been seen in clips calling Lance "Texas". Lance is shown in a preview clip waxing poetic about his first sight of Ali with his wife sitting right there beside him: "Woo! She's smoking hot!" (It seems good-natured, though; Melissa laughs easily and apparently genuinely in response.) Red team video profile

    White team: mother/son
  • Maria Ventrella (mother), 51, 5'4", 281lbs, BMI 48.2 (morbidly obese), corporate travel agent from Chicago, IL, married with 3 adult children, Facebook page
  • Michael Ventrella (son), 30, 6'3", 526lbs (yes, really), BMI 65.7 (morbidly obese), deejay from Chicago, IL, single, Facebook page
  • Michael is the heaviest person who has ever been on the show. However, he is not even close to being the most overweight - Shay (Season 8) and Daniel (Seasons 7&8) both have him beat. White team video profile, Second white team video profile

    Green team: mother/daughter
  • Migdalia Sebren (daughter), 28, 5'9", 265lbs, BMI 39.1 (clinically obese), homemaker from Sanford, NC, married with 2 children, Facebook page, MySpace page
  • Miggy Cancel (mother), 48, 5'9", 240lbs, BMI 35.4 (clinically obese), chef from Pemberton, NJ, divorced with 3 adult children and 2 grandkids, Facebook page, MySpace page
  • An NBC preview clip reveals that Migdalia's husband is military, and going to Afghanistan. Green team video profile

    Yellow team: father/daughter
  • O'Neal Hampton (father), 51, 5'11", 389lbs, BMI 54.2 (morbidly obese), USPS station manager from Minneapolis, MN, married with 4 adult children
  • Sunshine Hampton (daughter), 24, 5'6", 275lbs, BMI 44.4 (morbidly obese), server from Minneapolis, MN, single, Facebook page, MySpace page
  • Yellow team video profile (in which we learn that O'Neal used to be a paratrooper in the army, and also in which it is obvious that he is totally in love with his wife; we also hear that Sunshine has never been on a date)

    Purple team: mother/daughter
  • Patti Anderson (mother), 55, 5'4", 243lbs, BMI 41.7 (morbidly obese), business owner from Lafayette, CA, married with 2 adult children
  • Stephanie Anderson (daughter), 29, 5'8", 264lbs, BMI 40.1 (morbidly obese), radio sales executive from West Hollywood, CA, single
  • We've seen Stephanie saying in preview clips that she's never been in love. Purple team video profile (in which they vow that "purple is the new pink!")
  • Here they are in order from most overweight (biggest BMI) to least:

    1. Michael (65.7)
    2. Ashley (62.2)
    3. Darrell (59.3)
    4. James (57.5)
    5. John (57.4)
    6. O'Neal (54.2)
    7. Koli (53.2)
    8. Victoria (52.9)
    9. Daris (49.6)
    10. Maria (48.2)
    11. Andrea (46.7)
    12. Lance (45.6)
    13. Sam (45.3)
    14. Sunshine (44.4)
    15. Cherita (42.1)
    16. Patti (41.7)
    17. Sherry (41.2)
    18. Stephanie (40.1)
    19. Migdalia (39.1)
    20. Cheryl (39.0)
    21. Melissa (37.6)
    22. Miggy (35.4)

    It's interesting to note that there's a huge range of contestants this year. Yes, we have the usual BMI-over-50 horror stories, but we also have four contestants with clinically obese BMIs. One of them, Miggy, is even extremely close to being simply obese. I think this is excellent, because - although it doesn't give the lower-BMI contestants a real chance at the grand prize - it may help a larger segment of the viewing audience identify with the contestants and be motivated to make a change in their own lives. Someone who's clinically obese can watch the super-obese people losing weight and think, "Oh, I'm not that far gone yet, I don't have to worry," but slap a few clinically obese contestants into the mix and suddenly it might be a wake-up call.

    My prediction for this season's hotties:

    • Andrea
    • Ashley
    • Koli
    • Michael
    • Migdalia
    • Miggy
    • Sunshine
    • Victoria

    The timing

    According to Wikipedia, this season is going to be 18 shows plus the finale. This places the finale at May 11.

    So how much time lag is there between the filming and airing of the shows? Well, according to this news article, entitled "Twins Chosen As Contestants On 'The Biggest Loser'" and dated Thursday, September 24, 2009: "James and John Crutchfield received a big send-off Wednesday from downtown Orlando on Church Street where they both got their official weigh-ins." (As we've seen in a preview clip, this season, contestants had to weigh in extremely publically in front of not just family and friends, but practically their whole towns, before going to the ranch.)

    There are more clues around the Internet about when the contestants began their journeys. Daris's MySpace page received four good luck comments from September 24-26, and his status, dated September 30, says "Daris is look out here I come!!" Andrea's MySpace page received this comment on September 17: "So, I thought you weren't suppose to get online or anything like that. I hope all is well. Lord bless you." There was another one, which may or may not refer to the show, on September 20: "We miss you. Keep us updated. Good luck. God Bless." As well, Sam tweeted the following on Friday, September 25: "its official! the send off party will be this coming monday. 7pm @ rancho cotate high school. tell everyone thatc .."

    Finally, the show's host, Ali Sweeney, tweeted the following on the morning of October 1: "At spin class. Way to start the day right. Then new Biggest Loser season starts today!!! All new group. Can't wait to meet them. :)"

    What confuses me about all this is that it implies that everyone got their initial weigh-ins and left for the ranch on different days. This doesn't seem fair. I can't believe that, with total prize money of $350K on the line, they wouldn't be excruciatingly even-handed about the weigh-in times, so let's assume that there's there's a difference among the public weigh-in (September 23, according to the article about James and John), a celebratory send-off party (Sam's was on September 28, according to his Twitter account), and the day they arrived to start filming (October 1, according to Ali's Twitter account).

    Now, the shows air on Tuesdays, and it's just easier for my math if I assume the weigh-ins occur on Tuesdays, so based on the dates I know about, I'm going to take a stab and guess that Week 1 wrapped on Tuesday, October 6. Since the Week 1 show will air on January 5, that gives us a time lag of thirteen weeks.

    (DH has also suggested that maybe there's a second initial weigh-in upon arrival at the ranch, and whoever has lost the most weight between the two gets immunity for the week. Interesting theory.)

    Things might have been thrown off a bit by the holidays, though, because it looks like the contestants got sent home for about eight or nine days:

    • Sam's tweets break off after September 29 (saying thank-you for the send-off), and then there's nothing until December 19.

    • Daris's MySpace page has a comment dated December 21 which says "Can't waitfor you to get back!!". However, there's another comment on December 23 which says "I went to aqua zumba tonight and Diana the instructor said I heard the guy from the biggest loser was working out here today. I am so proud of you. You are doing a great job."

    • There are a few relevant comments on Sunshine's Facebook fan page. December 16: "Cant wait to see you when you come home in a couple of days" December 19: "I'm excited to see you guys tomorrow, the boys have been missing you!!" December 27: "Missing SunShine and O'Neal-- They left this am. They both looked amazing!!"

    Potential hookups

    Well, firstly, I hope that Lance and Melissa manage to find joy in each other again. That aside, though, the single folks are:

    • age 48: Miggy
    • age 30: Michael
    • age 29: Stephanie
    • age 29: Koli
    • age 27: Ashley
    • age 25: Daris
    • age 24: Sunshine
    • age 24: Andrea
    • age 24: Sam
    • age 22: Vicky

    (Wow. Could be some extra cardio exercise going on in the evenings on the ranch this season, if you know what I mean...)


    • This video clip shows the following Week 1 losses:
      • Michael: 34lbs (I believe this is the biggest one-week loss in the history of the show)
      • Patti: 23lbs
      • Stephanie: 18lbs
    • This video clip shows Melissa interviewing that "two teams have gone out, and if we're not careful, we're next". This implies that the interview took place during Week 3. Teams shown during this clip are: Brown, Pink, White, Red, Grey, Orange, Black, Purple, and Green. So it looks like the first two teams to go are Blue and Pink. RIP the Pink winning streak, I guess!
    • This video clip shows the contestants going to the USA Olympic training facility (pretty cool). Teams shown in that segment are Red, Black, Yellow, Orange, Grey, Pink, Green, Purple and White; no Brown or Blue. So perhaps Brown wasn't able to make that trip (much like Orange wasn't able to participate in temptation early in Season 7 because Daniel wasn't feeling well), and Blue isn't there because they got booted out Week 1?
    • This video clips implies that the first challenge is some kind of stationary bike thing.
    • This video clip reveals that Bob and Jillian will be working together again this season.

    How will I stand the wait?

    My spreadsheet is totally all set up and ready to go. :)

    Wednesday, December 09, 2009

    The Biggest Loser Review, 2009/12/08 (Season 9 finale)

    Welcome to the finale, everybody! I love Biggest Loser finales. It's like Christmas. Except that at Christmas, there aren't commercial breaks and recaps coming out the wazoo. And speaking of recaps, we start out the evening with footage of the Final Four, before they started this journey, projected digitally onto the stage. Ali promises that we will not believe the transformations. She leads us into the opening retrospective of the season. (And I confidently say "OPENING retrospective" because you just know that with a two-hour show, we're going to be ODing on retrospectives tonight.) It's pretty inspirational stuff.

    (Odd moment: The retrospective shows a quick shot of Rudy's sister, and I'm suddenly struck by how much her smile resembles Dina's smile. No wonder Rudy chose her as his partner. That's pretty sweet.)

    Ali then introduces the scale, to ominous music and cheers from the audience. It flexes its muscles and takes a bow. (No, of course it doesn't, as it's an inanimate object. Such a thing would be almost as ridiculous as introducing it to an audience as if it were a sentient being. Ahem.)

    With that, we get right to the results of America's vote for the third finalist spot. The contenders, which you'll of course know if you've been following story, are Liz and Amanda. We start with Amanda. She punches through her fat picture and comes out looking very nice. And hey! They've taken a page from the Australian Biggest Loser playbook and are doing a side-by-side digitisation of Before Amanda walking beside After Amanda. I've always wished they'd do that on the American version, that's great to see. At any rate, we now have Ali and Amanda standing beside each other, and I'm getting flashbacks to Single White Female. Liz comes out next, looking sharp - I do like her outfit. Ali reveals that Liz actually wanted to quit for the first month of the show, and Liz tells us how close she indeed came to doing so. She and Amanda hold hands as Ali psyches us all out with a commercial break. The suspense isn't that riveting, though, because as lovely as these two women look, there's no way either of them can possibly beat Danny or Rudy in the finals. Regardless, it's Amanda who gets the vote once again, and she's very happy and grateful. Liz looks a bit pissed off.

    We then move on to the very long segment of the show where we ignore the finalists completely. It's time to bring out the contestants who didn't make the Final Three! First up are the first four people to have been kicked off the ranch, although they don't come out in that order: Antoine, Alexandra, Sean and Julio. Antoine is looking unbelievably fly! My first thought is that he's going to give Rebecca a serious run for her money. Alexandra must be enjoying hitting that. And speaking of whom, she's looking pretty cute, although way too camera-muggy, as usual. She obviously still has a ways to go, though. Sean's doing okay too, he looks much more healthy. But the surprise is Julio! Look at him! He's very unrecognizable, although the facial hair is bleargh, it's kind of slimy. We start off the interviews by talking about Sean's new baby, Jillian May, whose picture flashes onto the screen. Sean says he's looking forward to her starting to motivate him...when she starts talking. (That was pretty funny.) Ali then turns to the new lo-vers to get their reactions. Alexandra loves having the support of another person, and Antoine loves all the unexpected good stuff that's come his way. Julio says he kept his promise.

    Ali brings out Bob and Jillian, both dressed in slimming black. Jillian says the secret to keeping the weight off is to appreciate yourself.

    Is it time for the first set of weigh-ins yet? Not quite. There is a recap toll we have to pay before getting to see each person's final weight. Alexandra was abandoned by her father when she was young, but now she's 91 pounds lighter, for a total of 29.45%. Antoine then takes the stage, and I still can't get over how great he looks. Like, really, amazingly good. He lost 152lbs for a total of 41.42%. That's excellent, but I change my mind - he's not going to catch Rebecca, who had lost a bigger percentage than that as of her Jay Leno interview a few weeks ago. We flash back to when Sean got to call home and find out the gender of his new baby, and then we see his pants-drop, which revealed not only his shrunken waistline, but his two older children. That was cute. He is looking mighty good as he stands on the scale. He's lost 155lbs for a total of 34.91%. Obviously he's not done, but it's an excellent start. Julio really does look amazing except for that gawdawful hairy spider on his face, argh! He blows ALL my expectations away with a weight loss of 180lbs, for a total of 44.23%. I start wondering if Rebecca's really going to win this after all, holy CRAP. Julio is very emotional and makes a cute crack about how his driver's licence is honest now.

    Moving on to the next batch of contestants to have been eliminated from the ranch, this time actually coming out in the order in which they were eliminated. Mo looks good, with a purple sweater, a nice nod to his team colour there. Dina looks very snazzy, although I definitely wouldn't have put her in those pants. Abby looks ridiculously smoking. Finally, we have the villain of the season, Tracey. She looks very skinny, and not really in a good way. She is extremely muscular and shapeless, unfortunately, and the clunky shoes complete the awkwardness of the look. When we do a closeup on her face, she looks kind of sick. Her face is sagging in a scary way, and overall it looks like she's pulled a Helen. (If she wins the at-home prize, I may puke.)

    In his recap, we see Mo fighting for it, and then looking very slick in his pants-drop profile. As the clip winds up, the audience is chanting his name because, well, who doesn't love Mo? He loses 92lbs for a total of 25.92%, and gives the camera a really excellent smile. We are then once again treated to the sight of Dina trying and failing to jump onto a stool. Finally at home, she gets it. She really is a pretty lady. She also has the distinction of weighing EXACTLY what I predicted she would. (DH: NAILED it!) She's lost 79lbs for a total of 31.23%. However, it's time to get sad again, because we're profiling Abby. (I found a YouTube video a few weeks ago which was a slide show of tons of photos of her husband and children. I just couldn't finish watching it. So heartbreaking.) The audience is on her feet for her. (And rightly so.) As the scale punches up her numbers, I notice that she is surprisingly top-heavy. Woo. She's lost exactly 100lbs for a total of 40.49%. Last of the group to weigh in is Tracey, aka Skeletor. Man, she has lost all her pretty. Despite her apparent unhealthy skinniness, though, she hasn't lost as much as it looks like she has. She's down 106lbs, which is 44.54%. She edges Julio off the podium by just 0.31%, but according to my numbers, Rebecca still has a really good shot.

    The last contestants to have been kicked off the ranch are next. We start with Shay, who is wearing a very glam sparkly top, I like it. And hell-LO, Daniel! Starting to look cut! (DH: Look at you, dude!) The much-anticipated Rebecca, however, looks, well, slutty, not to put too fine a point on it. Her new hair colour is awful because of how revoltingly artificial it looks, and the dress is not flattering - it reveals a lot of saggy leg skin. However, I will say that at least the cut of her hair is very cute. And of course she looks like she's done a beautiful job with the weight loss. My hope that Tracey will not win this thing is renewed. Allen hops down the stairs like a spry little elf. As they're all lined up, Shay looks tall and confident. Then Dr. H stands up to talk about how freaky-scary Daniel and Shay were when we first saw them. Daniel had adult diabetes when he was freakin' TWELVE, for example. Dr. H preaches about how bypass is not the only answer - in fact, it apparently gives people of Shay's and Daniel's previous size a one in ten chance of DYING within the first year. Also, Dr. H really needs to cut his hair. He says that Shay and Daniel have gained 13 and 23 more years of life expectancy, respectively. Really good times. Rebecca and Allen, however, don't even get to say a peep before we're hauled off to another commercial.

    As we come back, Tracey is looking freaked out as all hell UNTIL SHE REALISES THE CAMERA IS ACTUALLY ON HER, and then she gives a million-dollar smile. Whoops. With that, we move to Shay's very sad life story, and see the pants-drop that was never shown the week she left the ranch. As she steps on the scale, she is looking really cute. She's lost 172lbs for a total of 36.13%. I'm so proud of her, that's awesome. Of course, it's not even remotely close to beating Tracey, but it is no small feat to lose that kind of weight. As we go to Daniel's recap, his girlfriend Rebecca fondles the back of his neck. He doesn't look particularly thrilled about it, though. We see him from Season 7 when he was frickin' enormous. It really is hard to believe that he was that guy. He blows my expectations away by losing 111lbs for a total of 35.58%. And from his starting point at the beginning of Season 7, he has lost 253lbs for a total of 55.73%. That. Is. Excellent. Onto Rebecca, whose arms are quite skinny now, they look good. But she's having way too much fun being the centre of attention. (DH: She's enjoying being glamourous, and she's overdoing it.) Ali tells Rebecca how much she needs to lose to beat Tracey, and she loses it for about two seconds - I'm sure this is because she knows that number is no problem and that she's about to be much, much richer. Indeed, she beats my prediction very handily, dropping 139lbs for a total of 49.82%. She has knocked Tracey off the podium, to the eternal gratitude of the (rather considerable, I expect) anti-Tracey crowd, and does her trademarked cutesy happy dance. She really does have a Bridget Fonda thing going on, doesn't she?

    We still have Allen and Liz to weigh in, but this is kind of anti-climactic as they really have no chance. We definitely want to see them anyway, though. First up is Allen, the awesome stand-up guy who saves people's lives and property for a living. He really does look awesome now, at 116lbs lighter for a total of 35.69%. However, it's worth noting that his final weight was 209lbs, but during his Jay Leno interview, he said his weight was 200lbs. So he's actually gained nine pounds in two weeks?!? That's worrying. Liz's turn is coming soon, and she looks scared as shit. To compound her suspenseful freakout, we go to commercial. When we return, Liz has lost 91lbs for a total of 34.08%. This is a lovely amount of weight but it doesn't even touch the numbers of Rebecca, who loses her shit and jumps Bob, wrapping her legs around him. Ali tries to ask her a few questions, but she's so ridiculously jittery that it's actually kind of freaky. She then hugs a whole bunch of people who aren't Daniel, including another jump-and-leg-wrap, around SEAN of all people. (If I were Sean's wife, I would probably be kind of pissed at that.) But as I say, Daniel doesn't seem to get any attention from her, which is odd, since they're supposed to be together and in love? Curious.

    Once everyone's calmed down a wee bit, Ali calls out Shay, who clearly has no idea what's going on. DH theorizes that they're going to offer her a spot in Season 9, which is a great idea, but not quite what the show has in mind. Rather, Subway wishes to reward Shay for memorizing their menu and generally plugging them at every possible opportunity by inviting her to weigh in at the Season 9 finale. They will be giving her a thousand dollars for every pound she has lost between now and then. This is very exciting and terrific! Her husband Gene looks realy stoked about this prospect, and starts doing a happy dance up to the stage...but suddenly stops. I'm guessing he was shown the hand by someone on crew. Bob tells Shay that she's inspirational and that we're all invested in her story. (True.) She's happy as a clam and vows to get down to 204lbs. Go, Shay.

    At long last, it's time to pay some attention to the Final Three. No, not the actual Final Three, the RECAPS of the Final Three. (You didn't seriously think we'd get to the main show this far out from the end of the show's timeslot, did you? Foolish viewers.) Roll a profile of Rudy, who started with 442lbs and a sunburned nose and cheeks. He spent his time on the ranch dragging Jillian (and sometimes Bob) around the gym, before opening up about his sister and winning a marathon.

    But then, in the middle of all this finalist stuff, Antoine is on the stage. I find this confusing...until I get what he's about to do (I'd been wondering whether this would happen). The audience also clues in that a proposal is in the offing, and starts whooping in anticipation. And indeed, he gets Alexandra out there with him and goes down on one knee. He can't stop crying, she can't stop laughing. Okay, this is the sweetest thing ever. DH and I are both totally vorklempt. She holds out her hand for that rock faster than anyone I've ever seen! Their moms go apeshit huggy with each other in the audience before they engage in a very nice liplock. (Antoine and Alexandra, that is, not their moms.) THAT IS GOOD TV, PEOPLE!!!

    To continue the love (and finalist avoidance), we profile all the food bank assistance which the Biggest Loser has been inspiring over the last year. We then go in for a General Mills plug, following Bob around the country as he fights hunger in America through "Wake Up to Hunger". 49 million Americans are struggling with hunger, so General Mills is donating 49 million bowls of cereal. That adds up to just one meal for all the hungry people, which obviously isn't enough, so your help is needed. It'll make you feel good to help others, America. Bob sez so. Go to biggestloser.com and get involved with the Pound for Pound Challenge.

    At last, back to the finalists. Next up is Danny. He started at 430lbs and holy crow, he really was huge. A far cry from the "rock star" he used to be. We watch him get double digits for a record-breaking seven-week streak. By the final weigh-in, he had a really nice Kenneth Branagh thing going on with his face. "It's gonna be awesome," we watch Big Danny interviewing, and yes, buddy, yes you are. (Danny for the win.)

    We still don't get to see Danny and Rudy though, because we have to check in with Erin from the vote on last season's finale. She's lost 70lbs (or was it 72?) and looks gorgeous. Her competitor Amanda then gets her retrospective played. We see a lot of whining before she starts kicking ass, as Bob looks on with deep satisfaction. Pretty girl.

    At last, here are da boys! Rudy looks EXCELLENT. (DH: Oh, it's ON.) He is tall and lanky and, well, hot. He, too, gets a digitisation of his old self walking down the catwalk with his new self. After Rudy reaches over to pat Before Rudy's ass, which is HILARIOUS. In the audience, his older daughter covers her ears to block out the screaming. Finally, he gets to talk. Once he returned home, he realised he had a thousand excuses in his old life, including a horrific 70-hour work week. But after coming back from the ranch, he still made it work. (DH: Yeah, he's gotta stop working 70 hours a week.)

    And how does Danny look? Damn, DAMN good, although his outfit throws me off at first. That combination of shiny shirt and velevety vest is, I'm not going to lie, awful. (DH: He's got a little bit of Jimmy Stewart in him, too.) However, the more I see of Danny, the more fantastic he looks. My husband concurs, and starts raving: "LOOK at him! He's a movie star! He could have women falling at his feet! If I was his wife, I'd be kinda nervous! To hell with George Clooney and Brad Pitt, there it is, guys!" (He's straight, I swear.) Danny really is very handsome, but in a totally accessible, "I'm just a regular guy" kind of way. Wow. DH is right, no wonder his wife feels insecure. (Hm. Any bets that that's why he ended up gaining the weight, because he felt a subconscious need to reassure his wife that he wasn't going to stray? Interesting.) Anyhoo, he tells Ali that nobody recognizes him anymore, to the point where he'll be at the gym and the Biggest Loser will be playing on the TV, and he'll look around nervously for a mob of crazed fans, and NOBODY MAKES THE CONNECTION. Hilarious.

    But you know we have to drag this thing out a little bit more, so we get to see a preview of Season 9, which starts January 5. Apparently, one of the qualifications for anyone who wanted to compete in the upcoming season was to strip down to the bare essentials, and weigh in in front of HUGE amounts of people that they KNOW, to show them how much they really weigh. Man, that is harsh. The contestants are overflowing with issues. One of the pairs is a married couple who aren't even friends anymore. Another guy tells says he's never had a girlfriend in his entire life. (Dude, consider the possibility that it could be your hair. Seriously.) It all flashes by pretty quickly, but I did catch a moment where some older woman in orange is getting completely aggressive, which looked AWESOME. Just four more weeks. Can't wait.

    Scale time. Amanda's really just there to look pretty, though - this competition is between the guys. Danny gets to choose the order of weigh-in, since he was the biggest loser upon leaving the ranch. He goes with Amanda-Rudy-Daniel, which is my anticipated order of finish. However, yet again, we have to pay a recap toll: before each finalist weighs in, we have to see a retrospective of their previous weigh-ins. (Kill me now.) Amanda had a hilarious cute little dance of celebration when she did well. But now, she thrusts her chest out and waits for the verdict. She is down 87lbs (just 7lbs of extra weight loss since we last saw her), for a total of 34.80%. Next!

    (ANOTHER commercial? Are you kidding me?)

    Rudy's weight loss successes week after week were amazing. His final loss is a whopping 234lbs (45lbs of extra weight loss since we last saw him), for a fantastic total of 52.94%. Danny's jaw is on the floor, he's totally gobsmacked, and looks quite worried as we go into his weigh-in retrospective, in which we see that his weigh-in success move is a big hearty clap. (DH, looking at Danny's face: "Bit of Hugh Grant, too." Me: "I'VE BEEN SAYING THAT FOR WEEKS!") Danny has to have lost more than 227lbs to beat Rudy, which means that he has to have lost 27lbs since we last saw him. Danny tells us what a great guy Rudy is, and that he hasn't had a better friend in the house (take that, Liz), and that Rudy is an inspiration. Finally, Ali cuts him off so we can get to the meat-and-potatoes. Danny loses 239lbs for a total of 55.58%. This beats Rudy handily, and wins Danny the title and the $250,000 prize money. It also means, as far as I've been able to find out, that he has the highest single-season weight loss percentage of anyone on any Biggest Loser show anywhere in the world. And as far as I'm concerned, it couldn't happen to a nicer guy. Hooray.

    Later, Danny has an interview with that extremely effeminate Ross guy on the Jay Leno Show. Danny tells us that the first thing he's going to buy with his prize money is new carpet for the house. He and his wife have had the same awful carpet for eight years and desperately need another one. Ross replies that this is great, because he just looooves carpet! And I'm thinking, Ross, honey...you do NOT love "carpet", if you know what I mean. ;D

    So it's happy all round! New carpet, the good guys win, the bad guys don't, everyone's healthier, and love triumphs over all. One of the best seasons ever. See you in Season 9.

    How my predictions stacked up

    Not too badly. Some excellent successes, and some surprises. Julio was the big surprise of the night, in a good way (I love that), and there were some people who fell short of expectations, too. Here's how I did.

    Placement of the finalists

    100% correct

    Placement of the at-home contestants

    • Was off by 5 spots for one contestant
    • Was off by 3 spots for five contestants
    • Was off by 1 spot for two contestants
    • Correctly guessed the placement for five contestants, including the winner

    Final weights

    • Big fails
      • Underestimated Julio by 35lbs
      • Underestimated Daniel by 16lbs
      • Overestimated Sean by 15lbs
      • Overestimated Danny by 14lbs
      • Overestimated Allen by 12lbs
      • Underestimated Rebecca by 10lbs
    • Decent guesses
      • Off on Tracey's and Liz's weights by 8lbs
      • Off on Amanda's and Rudy's weights by 7lbs
    • Successes
      • Off on Antoine's and Abby's weights by 5lbs
      • Off on Shay's weight by 4lbs
      • Off on Mo's and Alexandra's weights by 3lbs
      • Got Dina right on the money

    Final standings

    Who Loss Weight BMI
    Mo 25.92% 263lbs 33.8
    Alexandra 29.45% 218lbs 33.1
    Dina 31.23% 174lbs 29.0
    Liz 34.08% 176lbs 27.6
    Amanda 34.80% 163lbs 26.3
    Sean 34.91% 289lbs 37.1
    Daniel 35.58% 201lbs 30.6
    Allen 35.69% 209lbs 29.1
    Shay 36.13% 304lbs 46.2
    Abby 40.49% 147lbs 25.2
    Antoine 41.42% 215lbs 29.2
    Julio 44.23% 227lbs 30.8
    Tracey 44.54% 132lbs 24.1
    Rebecca 49.82% 140lbs 22.6
    Rudy 52.94% 208lbs 25.3
    Danny 55.58% 191lbs 26.6

    purple = morbidly obese
    red = clinically obese
    orange = obese
    yellow = overweight
    green = normal

    Wednesday, December 02, 2009

    The Biggest Loser Review, 2009/12/01, and finale predictions

    We're down to the final four, who get extensive introductions, showing their beginning weigh-in and how bummed they all were about being fat. But then...the miracle of The Biggest Loser begins. They start to work. And sweat. And cry. And yell. And get yelled at. Eleven weeks later, they're machines. Not to mention that the trainers are now yelling approvingly rather than rebukingly. We watch the physical transformations all sped-up and of course everyone looks amazing.

    Which brings us to the elimination room following Allen's boot-off from last week's show. Everyone's pretty stoked to be in the final four. Ali tells them they're all going home for 60 days before coming back for the final weigh-in, which will help determine who the final three are going to be. (I still can't believe they're not having a bring-someone-back week on a season whose theme is second freakin' chances.) Liz remarks that this 60 days at home is a trial run. Then there's a lot of reflecting on the fact that they're doomed if they don't apply the lessons they've learned at the ranch to their lives at home. Amanda, however, is still flying high on the fact that she's in the final four, and doesn't seem as worried. In fact, she screams with glee.

    Naturally, still being in the game at this point means that you get to ride home in a limo. In the car, Rudy reflects that he's missed everything about his baby daughter's babyhood. This of course sucks, but he's hoping that the additional time he'll now have with her because he's not going to die an early death will make up for it. Liz is wearing a very well-coordinated outfit. Everyone enters their respective welcome-home parties and people go wild. Rudy even has Sean from the Red team at his party, and Liz has a full-on cheerleading squad going for her. Danny acknowledges how hard his absence has been for others, like, oh, say, his wife. So he's brought home a gift! He asks her to renew their vows and OMG, that is just spectacularly sweet, I love him. DH starts tearing up. Amanda cries to her loved ones about how hard it's been. Everyone announces their loss numbers and their people go crazy.

    Now it's time for the obligatory profile of how difficult it is for the contestants at home. Danny has figured out that The Biggest Loser is not just about weight loss, but about getting your mind right and healing what's wrong. When he struggles, he likes to drive around in dangerous weather conditions, keeping just one eye on the road as he hashes out his fears to the camera. (Great job, buddy. Add years to your life by getting healthy, and then die in a horrific car crash. What a plan.) His big thing is that his life has been filled with weight ups and downs. What causes him to let himself go? He hasn't figured it out yet. Meanwhile, Amanda is scared. She's in the "honeymoon phase" of being home and is waiting for reality to set in. She goes to the gym with her BFF Brian. He encourages her to realise that she's not "that person" anymore (i.e. fat and scared Amanda). She asks him how she can make sure that she never goes back, and he...has no answers for her.

    Rudy is thinking of his older sister Karen. As we found out in a recent episode, he was 12 and she was 14 when she was diagnosed with cancer; she fought hard, but didn't make it. We see pictures of Little Rudy and OMG, he looks exactly the same, but cuter. He says that the moment his sister died was when his battle with weight started. To his credit, he realises he has issues, and he realised he has a habit of hiding and staying away from them. Now he's using gong to the gym and working out as a substitute for eating, but this isn't the answer...although it sure as hell is a better option. He knows he has to actually deal with his problems, but facing issues is his Waterloo, so that's not going to be easy. He and his wife relax by the side of the pool and talk things out a bit. I think it's good that he can see what's going on with himself.

    Liz and her husband Jimmy have big issues to work out, issues that have been there for years. She became bitter and resentful, but the nice thing is that she isn't like that any more. They take a walk and discuss stuff. She talks about the lack of adventure and fun in their lives, and he says that yes, he misses that, it's why he fell in love with her. He starts to interview about their history together but gets emotional and has to leave the interview so that America won't see him cry. Men can't do that, doncha know.

    Doorbells ring! 'Tis the season, and Biggest Loser elves have been busy depositing packages on doorsteps. Everybody gets a customized DVD with a video message from Bob and Jillian and some clips of their original interviews right when the show started.

    On Liz's video, Bob reminds her that she needs to ask for help. We then see Large Liz talking about how she doesn't feel sexy and doesn't want her husband to touch her. She was terrified that he was going to come home one day and say that he wants out. When the video finishes, Jimmy tells Liz that he's proud of her, which appears to be a very big deal for him to do. For Rudy, Jillian tells him that his time at home should be spent practicing how he's going to live the rest of his life, because he deserves it. And can I just say that Rudy's baby girl is SOOO CUUUUTE! Rudy's interview reveals, to anyone who can do basic math, that he and his wife had their first child a few years before getting married. Which of course is totally cool, I'm not making a moral judgment; I just personally find it amusing that someone who is such a traditional "man's man" kind of guy who chops firewood for his family and seems to live in a log cabin in the woods didn't do things in the traditional order. :) After Rudy's video, he and his wife exchange happy looks and he gets in some good zrbts on his baby's tummy. Good times.

    Bob has thoughtfully put some additional goodies into Amanda's care package: the magical cure-all substance known as Extra Sugar-Free Gum. She passes it all around the living room so her whole family can get in the gum-chewing action. Yes, folks, the product placements do not stop just because the contestants are home; they just get lamer. Bob tells Amanda that she can do anything (well, of course that's true now that she has GUM on hand). Large Amanda interviews that she is always sad and hides it all the time. Naturally, her parents start crying at this revelation - I know I would if that were my kid. Bob wraps up the pep talk with his beloved Amanda by telling her that she has "It." My heavens, he sounds like Simon Cowell.

    For Danny, Bob reminds him that he was a man who had given up, but that now he has clarity. He also tells Danny's kids that they have a hero for a father. Jillian tells Danny that he's the definition of resilience and that he needs to move through the fear. When the video's over, Danny's wife tells him that he's always been a hero, even when he was fat. The look in his eyes clearly says: "Honey, I'm really happy you believe that, but the fact that you do is making me doubt your sanity." He smiles at her anyway, though, because he's totally into her. Aw.

    After that, we get a symphony of ring tones as Bob and Jillian call up the contestants on their cells. The trainers break the news that the Losers will be doing one more thing...and it's huge...yes, it's big...can they guess what it is...because it's huge...yes...it's...a...marathon! "I don't run!" protests Rudy. No one can really be that totally surprised, since this was the final challenge last season. They all still look scared shitless, though. "I love you too, Bob," says Amanda as she hangs up, but you know she's really thinking, "Oh fuck off, you sinewy tattooed bastard."

    We then get some extra time watching Danny's home life, because we need some more product placement. He and his kids play Biggest Loser on the Wii. But that's not all - Curtis Stone shows up to make good on Danny's prize from, I think it was last week? As expected, Danny's wife is REALLY enthusiastic about this prize and her voice gets all flirty and starstruck as she talks to Curtis. Danny's daughter clearly hasn't hit puberty yet, though, because she is totally untouched by Curtis's magic sexual charisma. In fact, she looks disgruntled as all hell as they cook some food, it's pretty funny. Danny's wife takes a break from the Curtis worship to look freaked out as her son slices up vegetables with a wicked-looking knife. (Hell, I'd be nervous about that, too.) Anyway, at the end of it, they all have some really delicious-looking baked potatoes. Like, I SERIOUSLY want one of those. The wondrousness of this baked potato is amplified by the fact that it contains only 290 calories instead of the 850 you'd get with your usual baked potato with all the bacon and cheese and stuff. Curtis then chucks the 850-calorie potato into the garbage as he leaves. Nice job, dude. You don't think there's anyone around who's hungry and broke and could have used that food?

    Since it's getting kind of boring just following the contestants around at home in their daily lives, the show brings in Jillian and Bob to visit the contestants and liven things up a little. Surprise! Jillian discovers that Liz is totally isolated. She's in the middle of nowhere, and her husband goes off and travels during the work week. Amanda is freaking out about discipline and counting calories. Danny, his wife, and Jillian have a little couples therapy session sitting at the kitchen table. He's having trouble integrating back in with his family, and his wife is just a big ball of insecurity - clearly she has her own issues. Rudy is going full-tilt in his life but still doesn't have much time to work out. Furthermore, his older daughter missed him so much when he was on the ranch that she doesn't want to let him out of her sight - he has to sneak out of the house when she's asleep if he wants to go anywhere. (Poor little sweetie.) So things are tough all over. Jillian takes Danny to the gym and kicks his ass; he's having trouble focusing. Then she runs with Liz and they chant "It's never too late to make a change!"

    Meanwhile, Tara from last season is volunteering at a Long Island food bank. And you should, too. Well, maybe not Long Island if that's not where you live, but you know what I mean. I bet the people Tara's helping will be mightily pissed off when they watch this episode and see Curtis Stone throwing a perfectly good potato into the trash.

    We also get a peek at Erin, who appeared on last season's finale, competing with Amanda for that last spot on the ranch for this season. She's been working hard and has lost 42 pounds, which is great. This leads to a flurry of product placements. First, we find out that Erin's success is at least partly due to having spent some time at the Biggest Loser's resort, "Fitness Ridge". Then Erin, Bob, Amanda, and Amanda's family and friends all head over to a bunch of sheltered picnic tables for some delicious Subway sandwiches. Bob preaches the benefits and convenience of Subway menu goodness. "That's easy!" enthuses Amanda.

    FINALLY, we get on to marathon training. Based on how people look running, DH predicts Amanda for the win.

    But we don't get much of that before heading back to the ranch. Everyone is looking noticeably slimmer, and Danny now looks like the love child of Hugh Grant and Brian Mulroney...but in a good way. Seriously, his face looks awesome. Ali builds up the marathon by telling them they'll be going through all kinds of different terrain. And everyone who finishes will get $10K to go to the charity of their choice, courtesy of Biggest Loser Protein - another plug! Man, they're really piling them on this week.

    It's pretty clear right at the outset that Rudy has this thing nailed. Amanda keeps pace with him for a while out in front, but eventually he takes the clear lead. His goals today are three-fold: a) to win, b) to run the whole thing, no walking, and c) to do it all in less than five and a half hours. DH: "Tara would kick all of these people's asses." And speak of the devil, Tara jumps out from behind a tree and surprises Danny and Liz. Tara looks like she's put some weight back on from the finale, but she can still run! Liz tells her that she loved sitting at home last season and watching Tara pull that car. I'm certainly with Liz on that one; Tara is indeed an ass-kicker of the highest quality. Meanwhile, Rudy is met by his old partner in Blue, Dina! She looks lovely and he's delighted to see her. They run together. Amanda's surprise running mate is her BFF Brian, and she's thrilled when she hits the halfway point.

    But it's not all fun times. Danny's hip and knees are killing him and Liz's knees aren't too happy, either. She considers leaving Danny behind as he slows to a walk, but she doesn't know if she can do it on her own. However, she decides to stick with him. Amanda starts to whine, but Tara shows up - having left Liz and Danny, evidently - and bolsters her spirits by calling her 'pumpkin'. This gets Amanda to mile 17, at which point she goes into full-on whimpering mode. (I may snark about how annoying Amanda's whining is, but I also must admit that she is sooo much more fit than me, and is doing a marathon, which I wouldn't have a hope in hell of finishing without dropping dead.) And although Tara's left Danny and Liz, they're not alone - their spouses meet them at the 13-mile marker. They all have to wait for a bit, though, because Liz needs to dance around the marker, which is hilarious. Up at the 22-mile marker, though, Rudy is starting to talk about walking. Dina, still smiling her glorious smile, keeps him going.

    Danny's pain is pretty bad now. Amanda walked for a bit but then breaks back into a run, thanks to Tara and Brian pushing her, and her desire to not quit. Rudy is lumbering pretty painfully, but he's still in a run, and he's very close to the finish. Bob meets him at the 25-mile marker looking unbelieveably perky. To celebrate the beginning of the last mile, Rudy and Dina do a knuckle-bump, and then we flash back to that one last mile that everybody did on the first day. Cue the inspirational Biggest Loser symphony music. Rudy: "Who picked a finish line 26.2 miles away from a starting line?" DH: "Pheidippides." Despite his complaints, though, Rudy is the first to finish. Helen and Mike from last season, along with Ali, are waiting for him at the finish line, which he runs through. His time is 5:12:41. All goals achieved! Way to go, Rudy.

    Next to have the moment of triumph is Amanda. Bob goes back to the 25-mile marker to wait for her, and is - if possible - even more perky now than when he met Rudy. Bob points out the finish line to Amanda and she gets giddy. Her time is 5:28:27, and she screams in triumph. Ali then points out that we have two more people coming along soon. However, it turns out that they're 10 miles back of the finish line, so "soon" for Ali is relative to, like, a week-long cruise or something, I guess. In fact, Danny and Liz are really struggling. They have to rest and get their knees iced at a hydration station. Danny is seriously considering quitting, but then has a big epiphany. He decides that quitting is what got him to 430lbs, so he's going to keep at it. He reflects that all season, he's been the one to encourage Liz not to quit, but now she's the one encouraging him. He feels it was destiny that he and Liz were partnered up. It's all feel-good from here, people, because the miles are now flicking by. Jillian meets them at the 25-mile marker, and Liz reflects on the craziness of how the last mile almost killed them on the first day. I reflect on how cruel it is to make them do the last stretch of the run on freakin' SAND. Danny and Liz link arms as they hit the finish line together. Their time is 6:55:22. Nice.

    Everyone plays up the importance of the weigh-in as we go into that. Naturally, since the contestants have had 60 days to drop more weight, there are a lot of excellent milestones to note:

    • Rudy drops below 275lbs
    • Danny drops below 250lbs
    • Amanda drops below 175lbs
    • Amanda and Liz hit the 30% mark for total weight loss
    • Rudy hits the 40% mark for total weight loss
    • Danny hits the 45% mark for total weight loss
    • Amanda and Liz hit the 75lbs mark of total weight loss
    • Rudy hits the 175lbs mark of total weight loss
    • Danny hits the 200lbs mark of total weight loss
    • Rudy goes from clinically obese to obese
    • Danny goes from morbidly obese to obese
    • Amanda and Liz go from obese to overweight

    In the end, Danny kicks everyone's ass commandingly, and Amanda and Liz fall below the yellow line. It's up to America to vote for which of the ladies they want to see competing in the final three. Amanda and Liz plead their cases to the viewing audience. Liz says she knows she has it in her to win this, and plays the age card. Amanda asks people to let her finish what she started, and promises to make America proud. I suspect Amanda will be the one to go through. Assuming I'm right, here are my final predictions:


    • Mo: 26.66%
    • Alexandra: 30.40%
    • Daniel: 30.50%
    • Dina: 31.37%
    • Shay: 35.31%
    • Julio: 35.68%
    • Liz: 37.14%
    • Sean: 38.27%
    • Abby: 38.62%
    • Allen: 39.48%
    • Antoine: 39.93%
    • Tracey: 41.22%
    • Rebecca: 46.18%


    • Amanda: 37.66%
    • Rudy: 51.33%
    • Danny: 58.78%

    And may I just say that I would be delighted with these wins. I think Rebecca has worked super-hard and completely deserves the at-home prize, and I love Danny, I think he's awesome.

    Can't wait for next week!

    For anyone who, like me, is a total geek and wants to see how I arrived at my finale weight loss predictions, read on.

    I came up with predictions as accurately as I could. Firstly, I'm working on the assumption that how the contestants do at the ranch is not a true indicator of what we can expect out of them for the finale. An accurate prediction for a contestant's finale weight has to be based on how the contestant does at HOME. That means that we need to know:

    1. What the contestant weighed when they left the ranch
    2. When the contestant left the ranch
    3. What the contestant weighed after being at home for a while
    4. When the contestant was weighed after being at home for a while
    5. How much time there is between the time they were weighed after being at home and the finale.

    For some contestants, we have pretty much all of this information. For others, not so much. So some of my predictions are going to be more likely to be accurate than others.

    For figuring out timing, we have the following information:

    • Daniel's weight at the Season 7 finale was 312 pounds. His starting weight on day one of Season 8 was also 312 pounds. It's therefore reasonable to conclude that Season 8 started filming pretty much immediately after the Season 7 finale, which means May 12 = day one.
    • The first show of Season 8 was aired on September 15.
    • Bob tweeted on August 11 that they are about to wrap up Season 8.
    • During the marathon-preparation scenes on this week's episode, Rudy's calendar showed that the marathon was taking place on Saturday the 10th of something. Taking a look at the 2009 calendar and eliminating any months before the season started filming, this means the marathon took place on October 10. (This works perfectly, as October 10 is exactly 60 days after Bob's tweet on August 11 that they were wrapping things up.)
    • Somewhere I read an interview or something where Mike Morelli from Season 7 said that he was completely wiped for two days after doing the marathon. I therefore think they did the final weigh-in a few days after the marathon, so let's say October 13.

    So. If Week 1 began on May 12, then the assumption is that Week 1 ended on May 19. The Week 1 show aired on September 15, which gives us a difference of 17 weeks. However, we also know that Week 11 ended on August 11, and the Week 11 show aired on November 24, which gives us a difference of 15 weeks. So sometime between the beginning of filming and the Week 11 wrapup, they gained two weeks. I'm going to guess, based on the outrageously good weight losses we saw in the Week 1 and Week 2 shows, that those two "weeks" were actually two weeks long each. I could be wrong about that, but if I can't work with what I know, I have to make guesses.

    What does this all mean?

    • Alexandra's last day on the ranch was May 26, giving her 28 weeks until the finale.
    • Antoine's and Sean's last day on the ranch was June 16, giving them 25 weeks until the finale.
    • Julio's last day on the ranch was June 23, giving him 24 weeks until the finale.
    • Mo's last day on the ranch was June 30, giving him 23 weeks until the finale.
    • Dina's last day on the ranch was July 7, giving her 22 weeks until the finale.
    • Abby's last day on the ranch was July 14, giving her 21 weeks until the finale.
    • Tracey's last day on the ranch was July 21, giving her 20 weeks until the finale.
    • Shay's and Daniel's last day on the ranch was July 28, giving them 19 weeks until the finale.
    • Rebecca's last day on the ranch was August 4, giving her 18 weeks until the finale.
    • Allen's last day on the ranch was August 11, giving him 17 weeks until the finale.
    • Amanda's, Danny's, Liz's and Rudy's last day on the ranch prior to the 60-days-at-home thing was August 11, giving them 17 weeks until the finale.



    She weighed 296lbs when she left the ranch on May 26. Her episode aired on September 15, when she was profiled as being 249lbs. Assuming her profile was filmed the week before the episode aired (a big assumption), that means she lost 47lbs at home over 15 weeks. Based on that rate of at-home weight loss, with 13 weeks left to go until the finale, I project a final weight of 215lbs. This gives her a final weight-loss percentage of 30.40% and a BMI of 32.7, which is obese.


    She weighed 201lbs when she left the ranch on July 14. She was interviewed on the Ellen show on November 3, when she was profiled as being 161lbs. That means she lost 40lbs at home over 16 weeks. Based on that rate of at-home weight loss, with 5 weeks to go until the finale, I project a final weight of 152lbs. This gives her a final weight-loss percentage of 38.62% and a BMI of 26.1, which is overweight.


    He weighed 230lbs when he left the ranch on August 11. He was interviewed on the Jay Leno show on November 24, when he was profiled as being 200lbs. That means he lost 30lbs at home over 15 weeks. Based on that rate of at-home weight loss, with 2 weeks to go until the finale, I project a final weight of 197lbs. This gives him a final weight-loss percentage of 39.48% and a BMI of 27.5, which is overweight.


    She weighed 186lbs when she left the ranch on August 11. At the final weigh-in around October 13, she was 170lbs. That means she lost 16lbs at home over 9 weeks. Based on that rate of at-home weight loss, with 8 weeks to go until the finale, I project a final weight of 156lbs. This gives her a final weight-loss percentage of 37.66% and a BMI of 25.2, which is overweight.


    He weighed 330lbs when he left the ranch on June 16. His episode aired on September 29, when he was profiled as being 262lbs. Assuming his profile was filmed the week before the episode aired (a big assumption), that means he lost 68lbs at home over 14 weeks. Based on that rate of at-home weight loss, with 11 weeks to go until the finale, I project a final weight of 220lbs. This gives him a final weight-loss percentage of 39.93% and a BMI of 29.8, which is overweight.


    He weighed 256lbs when he left the ranch on July 28. He was interviewed on the Jay Leno show on November 10, when he was profiled as being 224lbs. That means he lost 32lbs at home over 15 weeks. Based on that rate of at-home weight loss, with 4 weeks to go until the finale, I project a final weight of 217lbs. This gives him a final weight-loss percentage of 30.50% and a BMI of 33.0, which is obese. It also gives him a total weight-loss percentage from his start at the beginning of the previous season of 52.20%.


    He weighed 288lbs when she left the ranch on August 11. At the final weigh-in around October 13, he was 229lbs. That means he lost 59lbs at home over 9 weeks. Based on that rate of at-home weight loss, with 8 weeks to go until the finale, I project a final weight of 177lbs. This gives him a final weight-loss percentage of 58.78% and a BMI of 24.7, which is normal.


    She weighed 218lbs when she left the ranch on July 7. Her episode aired on October 20, when she was profiled as being 188lbs. Assuming her profile was filmed the week before the episode aired (a big assumption), that means she lost 30lbs at home over 14 weeks. Based on that rate of at-home weight loss, with 8 weeks to go until the finale, I project a final weight of 174lbs. This gives her a final weight-loss percentage of 31.37% and a BMI of 29.0, which is overweight.


    He weighed 364lbs when he left the ranch on June 23. His episode aired on October 6, when he was profiled as being 299lbs. Assuming his profile was filmed the week before the episode aired (a big assumption), that means he lost 65lbs at home over 14 weeks. Based on that rate of at-home weight loss, with 10 weeks to go until the finale, I project a final weight of 262lbs. This gives him a final weight-loss percentage of 35.68% and a BMI of 35.5, which is clinically obese.


    She weighed 198lbs when she left the ranch on August 11. At the final weigh-in around October 13, she was 182lbs. That means she lost 16lbs at home over 9 weeks. Based on that rate of at-home weight loss, with 8 weeks to go until the finale, I project a final weight of 168lbs. This gives her a final weight-loss percentage of 37.14% and a BMI of 26.3, which is overweight.


    He weighed 312lbs when he left the ranch on June 30. His episode aired on October 13, when he was profiled as being 279lbs. Assuming his profile was filmed the week before the episode aired (a big assumption), that means means he lost 33lbs at home over 14 weeks. Based on that rate of at-home weight loss, with 9 weeks to go until the finale, I project a final weight of 260lbs. This gives him a final weight-loss percentage of 26.66% and a BMI of 33.4, which is obese.


    She weighed 206lbs when she left the ranch on August 4. She was interviewed on the Jay Leno show on November 17, when she was profiled as being 157lbs. That means she lost 49lbs at home over 15 weeks. Based on that rate of at-home weight loss, with 3 weeks to go until the finale, I project a final weight of 150lbs. This gives her a final weight-loss percentage of 46.18% and a BMI of 24.2, which is normal.


    He weighed 296lbs when he left the ranch on August 11. At the final weigh-in around October 13, he was 253lbs. That means he lost 43lbs at home over 9 weeks. Based on that rate of at-home weight loss, with 8 weeks to go until the finale, I project a final weight of 215lbs. This gives him a final weight loss percentage of 51.33% and a BMI of 26.2, which is overweight.


    He weighed 405lbs when he left the ranch on June 16. His episode aired on September 29, when he was profiled as being 324lbs. Assuming his profile was filmed the week before the episode aired (a big assumption), that means he lost 81lbs at home over 14 weeks. Based on that rate of at-home weight loss, with 11 weeks to go until the finale, I project a final weight of 274lbs. This gives him a final weight-loss percentage of 38.27% and a BMI of 29.8, which is clinically obese.


    She weighed 376lbs when she left the ranch on July 28. She was interviewed on the Jay Leno show on November 10, when she was profiled as being 320lbs. That means she lost 56lbs at home over 15 weeks. Based on that rate of at-home weight loss, with 4 weeks to go until the finale, I project a final weight of 308lbs. This gives her a final weight-loss percentage of 35.31% and a BMI of 46.8, which is morbidly obese. (This is a vast improvement over her starting BMI of 72.4.)


    She weighed 194lbs when she left the ranch on July 21. Her episode aired on November 3, when she was profiled as being 153lbs. (She was interviewed on Jay Leno, but would not tell him how much she weighed.) Assuming her profile was filmed the week before the episode aired (a big assumption), that means she lost 41lbs at home over 14 weeks. Based on that rate of at-home weight loss, with 6 weeks to go until the finale, I project a final weight of 140lbs. This gives her a final weight-loss percentage of 41.22% and a BMI of 25.6, which is overweight.

    My projections are based on the following equation:


    X = weight upon leaving the house
    Y = percentage of weight loss at home
    Z = number of weeks they had at home to lose the weight we know about
    N = number of weeks until finale